Saturday, March 04, 2006

Oscar Predictions

Full disclosure before we start here. I've only seen one movie amongst the nominated movies here.

BEST PICTURE
Nominees: "Brokeback Mountain," "Capote," "Crash," "Good Night, and Good Luck," "Munich."

Prediction: I think it's a two-horse race here with "Brokeback Mountain" and "Crash". "Brokeback" won the Golden Globes, but "Crash" won the SAG Awards. I think the Brokeback buzz - it is easily the most talked about movie of the year - will propel it to victory. My preference is "Crash", which I found to be one of the movies I've seen in a long time.

BEST DIRECTOR
Nominees: Ang Lee, "Brokeback Mountain"; Bennett Miller, "Capote"; Paul Haggis, "Crash"; George Clooney, "Good Night, and Good Luck"; Steven Spielberg, "Munich."

Prediction: Ang Lee for making magic with a movie about gay cowboys.

BEST ACTOR
Nominees: Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Capote"; Terrence Howard, "Hustle & Flow"; Heath Ledger, "Brokeback Mountain"; Joaquin Phoenix, "Walk the Line"; David Strathairn, "Good Night, and Good Luck."

Prediction: Philip Seymour Hoffman. He has won every award show this year. It's hard to believe this will be different. Terrence Howard, however, is building some momentum and could be the dark horse surprise winner.

BEST ACTRESS
Nominees: Judi Dench, "Mrs. Henderson Presents"; Felicity Huffman, "Transamerica"; Keira Knightley, "Pride & Prejudice"; Charlize Theron, "North Country"; Reese Witherspoon, "Walk the Line"

Prediction: Another two-horse race, this time between Reese Witherspoon and Felicity Huffman. Reese has won the major awards in the category, but history shows that Oscar voters favor actresses who "ugly down", like Hilary Swank in "Boys Don't Cry", Nicole Kidman with the nose in "The Hours" and Charlize Theron in "Monster". If the trend sticks, look for Felicity Huffman to win this one in her role as a transsexual.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees:
George Clooney, "Syriana"; Matt Dillon, "Crash"; Paul Giamatti, "Cinderella Man"; Jake Gyllenhaal, "Brokeback Mountain"; William Hurt, "A History of Violence"

Prediction: I think George Clooney and "Crash" are going to be honored in some way tonight and are not going to be shut out of the Oscars completely. If "Crash" does not get Best Picture or Screenplay, Matt Dillon will win here. If Clooney does not get Best Screenplay, he will win here.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees: Amy Adams, "Junebug"; Catherine Keener, "Capote"; Frances McDormand, "North Country"; Rachel Weisz, "The Constant Gardener"; Michelle Williams, "Brokeback Mountain"

Prediction: Rachel Weisz has been winning all of the awards, but Oscar favors the young ingenue in this category, so I'm predicting a Michelle Williams victory, with Amy Adams possibly sneaking in there for the big surprise of the night.

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